PCB Industry Growth Rates and Book-to-Bill Ratios Announced
Rigid PCB shipments were up 9.7 percent and bookings increased 4.3 percent in November 2010 from November 2009. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments were up 18.6 percent and bookings have grown 23.4 percent. Compared to the previous month, rigid PCB shipments decreased 3.5 percent and rigid bookings increased 2.3 percent. The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid PCB industry in November 2010 fell to 0.96.
Flexible circuit shipments in November 2010 were up 38.8 percent and bookings grew 14.2 percent compared to November 2009. Year to date, flexible circuit shipments increased 13.2 percent and bookings were up 19.0 percent. Compared to the previous month, flexible circuit shipments increased 6.1 percent and flex bookings decreased 5.5 percent. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill ratio in November 2010 dropped to 0.92.
For rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined, industry shipments in November 2010 increased 11.8 percent from November 2009, as orders booked increased 5.0 percent from November 2009. Year to date, combined industry shipments were up 18.1 percent and bookings were up 23.0 percent. Compared to the previous month, combined industry shipments for November 2010 decreased 2.7 percent and bookings increased 1.7 percent. The combined (rigid and flex) industry book-to-bill ratio in November 2010 dipped to 0.96.
“Year-on-year growth rates for rigid PCB and flexible circuit sales are still positive, but the rate of growth for rigid PCBs is slowing while the growth rate for flex is now increasing,” said IPC President & CEO Denny McGuirk. “Although sales are still strong, orders have slowed in both segments, due in part to seasonal effects this month. Slowing orders have driven the book-to-bill ratio downward over the past six months,” he added.
The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next two to three months.
Book-to-bill ratios and growth rates for rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined are heavily affected by the rigid PCB segment. Rigid PCBs represent an estimated 89 percent of the current PCB industry in North America, according to IPC’s World PCB Production Report.
The Role of Domestic Production
IPC’s monthly survey of the North American PCB industry tracks bookings and shipments from U.S. and Canadian facilities, which provide indicators of regional demand. These numbers do not measure U.S. and Canadian PCB production. To track regional production trends, IPC asks survey participants for the percent of their reported shipments that were produced domestically (i.e., in the USA or Canada). In November 2010, 83 percent of total PCB shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 82 percent of rigid PCB and 84 percent of flexible circuit shipments in November by IPC’s survey participants. These numbers are significantly affected by the mix of companies in IPC’s survey sample, which changed slightly in January, but are kept constant through the remainder of the year.
Bare Circuits versus Assembly
Flexible circuit sales typically include value-added services such as assembly, in addition to the bare flex circuits. In November, the flexible circuit manufacturers in IPC’s survey sample indicated that bare circuits accounted for about 47 percent of their shipment value reported for the month. Assembly and other services make up a large and growing segment of flexible circuit producers’ businesses. This figure is also sensitive to changes in the survey sample, which may occur at the beginning of each calendar year.
Interpreting the Data
Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they may reflect cyclical effects. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month may not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.
The information in IPC’s monthly PCB industry statistics is based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid and flexible PCB manufacturers in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB Book-to-Bill Ratio and the PCB Statistical Program Report each month. Statistics for the previous month are not available until the last week of the following month.
IPC (www.IPC.org) is a global trade association based in Bannockburn, Ill., dedicated to the competitive excellence and financial success of its 2,700 member companies which represent all facets of the electronics industry, including design, printed board manufacturing, electronics assembly and test. As a member-driven organization and leading source for industry standards, training, market research and public policy advocacy, IPC supports programs to meet the needs of an estimated $1.7 trillion global electronics industry. IPC maintains additional offices in Taos, N.M.; Arlington, Va.; Garden Grove, Calif.; Stockholm, Sweden; Moscow, Russia; Bangalore, India; and Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing, China.